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| this story changed before I could ever sit down to write it. I planne |
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Well http://www.thecoltsfootballauthentic.com/t.y.-hilt...-authen tic , d to make an argument for the Indianapolis Colts possibly dealing defensive end Jabaal Sheard as the trade deadline approaches. Then I saw that Nick Shook of NFL.com had already suggested this in his latest column âOne move for each AFC team to make.â So. first Iâll give you Nickâs blurb on Sheard, then Iâll give you some additional factors to help you think through whether you feel itâs a good idea or a bad one for the Colts right now. Okay, of course everything that Nick laid out here is right on. But, let me talk a bit about his words before I get into the additional thoughts. The Colts really arenât in any sort of position to be dealing, though most might disagree. At 2-5, the Colts may just be at a crossroads in their season especially if they handle the Oakland Raiders this Sunday. That puts them at 3-5 at their bye with a heavy AFC South schedule, which could be perfect timing with consideration to how the rest of the division is playing right now. The rest of their non-divisional games post-bye, are a combined 8-13 right now and are all very beatable for the Colts. So the Colts do currently have a legitimate chance to take the division, though I admit things would have to really get on a roll for that to happen.Most would say âWell, theyâre 2-5, theyâre not doing anything this year.â As you can see, thatâs not really the case here â all things considered. On the other hand, if the Colts take a loss in Oakland, itâs hard to envision any postseason miracles.Next, yes, Sheard will be 30 next year, and heading into the final season of his contract, and I donât think that anyone believes that Sheard will be on the Colts roster next season. Not when you see Chris Ballard wanting to go young sooner rather than later with this roster. You know Tyquan Lewis looks to be well on his way to being on the active roster post-bye if the stories about how heâs been preparing lately are true. The Colts likely plan to play him almost solely at the 3-tech, but Margus Hunt has played a lot of DE this year already just for one example. And if you feel Denico Autry is getting healthy, why isnât this a position you could supplement with a couple different guys?The Colts also seem to like Carroll Phillips, and Al-Qadin Muhammad enough to use them as rotational pieces at the position, and may have greater expectations for them than we currently know. Just saying. Kemoko Turay looks like heâs progressing nicely as the season continues, and if that ascension were to continue, the near future could be extremely bright.Sheard does share the team lead in sacks (4) for the Colts right now, and has honestly been pretty fantastic this year all the way around. And thereâs another argument here too. Sheard is exactly what Chris Ballard wants the youngsters on this roster to embody. He is a hard worker. He is disciplined, and very disruptive. Would this send the wrong message to the rest of the roster? Maybe. His cap hit is moot at this point. The Colts have all the money in the world, and donât look to be candidates to be setting the market in the next free agency period. They may be a little more active than this past offseason, but Ballard isnât going to go crazy. Heâs told us that many times.Now you have to look at the compensation. If weâre talking late-rounder â as Shook suggests â would you do that for a sixth round pick in return for Sheard and risk losing any potential momentum the team could be gaining? I donât know if I do. However, I do know that there are some potential playoff teams right now that have very little pass rush and may be willing to pay a slightly higher price for Sheard. Now, I wonât pretend to know the depths of these rosters, but thereâs a couple that look interesting for this. The New England Patriots have a total of 9 sacks this year. The Miami Dolphins, who are hoping to upset those Pats for the AFC East this year, have a total of 11 sacks on the season. Both are in the mix right now and may see another 5-8 sacks in Sheard this season. In the NFC Womens Margus Hunt Jersey , the Saints are 5-1 and are only up one game on the Panthers in the NFC South. The Saints have only amassed 13 sacks on the year, and just to keep the divisional talk going, the Atlanta Falcons are only a game shy in the win column of those Panthers. The Falcons are also somewhat disappointing with their lack of production in rushing the passer with a total of 14 sacks.Is Sheard maybe worth a fourth, or fifth round pick to one of these teams? If he is, I think I like the exchange for a fifth to be perfectly honest. I donât think Sheard would yield a fourth mostly because of his age, but if that were ever an offer I wouldnât think twice about it. Finding that balance between the right veteran leadership for the culture youâre looking to build, acquiring what you can to build that roster how you want to, all while also being honest about the teamâs situation is a tightrope act all within itself. This certainly isnât out of the realm of possibility if teams are to call on Ballard for Sheardâs services.If youâre on the âkeep Sheardâ train, then youâre probably right. Heâs been great for the Colts and is absolutely the right type of leadership that you hope to have in the locker room. Conversely, if youâre on the other side of this argument then youâre likely also right. For me, anything less than a sixth rounder and I donât even respond. Iâd very much ponder about a fifth, but Iâd have to really be confident in my youth stepping up, my vets staying healthy and my injured would have to be coming back very quickly. OverviewOn October 21, 2018 the Indianapolis Colts will host the Oakland Raiders. In this week eight match up I sought to understand our opponent and get a better idea of how they may attack our new look Colts. The last time these two teams faced off in 2016, Derek Carr threw three touchdown passes and DeAndre Washington ran in two more while Andrew Luck threw two touchdowns of his own but was intercepted twice as well. Those interceptions are interceptions all the same, but if it makes a difference to you, the reader, Andrew Luck was playing with a torn Labrum. This match up will provide two teams in vastly different situations this time around. Hopefully the outcome will also be vastly different. Letâs figure out what we can expect in week eightOffensive Scheme Offenses led by Jon Gruden are infamous for many things, and famous for a few other things. Chiefly among those famous things are Grudenâs West Coast offense and the complexity of that system. Last week the Colts faced a Bills team that was very much trying to protect its quarterback. The passing concepts were simplified, the reads the quarterback was responsible for making were quick, easy reads. The Bills knew they were limited so they attempted to tailor their offense to the talent they have. Jon Gruden is infamous for having never been able to effectively modify his system to the talent he has to work with. During his coaching career Grudenâs starting quarterbacks are an average of 34 years old. In 2018, 34 doesnât sound that old when some of the best quarterbacks currently playing the game are in their late 30âs but in the late 90âs and early 2000âs, 34 for nearly any quarterback was old. Gruden has consistently ousted young, promising passers and replaced them with quarterbacks in their mid 30âs. Heâs had some success doing this in his career. While Derek Carr isnât the next coming of Peyton Manning, it would be foolish to get rid of him â but Gruden seems to be unwilling to work with the young passer to mold an offense around him and itâs becoming evident. Spider 2 Y Banana:Gruden breaks down this play here:Now, there are differences given the formation and one of the routes run, but make no mistake, this was 90% the same as the play he draws up for Marcus Mariota. Carr had one read and it was to throw this ball to the receiver who went in motion. The other routes on this play were a diversion but itâs impossible to know that in the moment. Spider 2 Y Banana isnât just a funny Gruden meme, itâs really Grudenâs favorite play and he has some very interesting ways to work this high-low passing concept into his game plan.4-Verts:Gruden is a West Coast offense guy at his core but so far heâs shown a diverse offense in his return to the sideline. He will often work in Air Raid concepts and even though 4-verts isnât an Air Raid invention, this does show his willingness to push the ball down the field and take shots when he feels the time is right. I also noticed many more wide receiver screens than I expected from a Gruden team. Youâve probably seen this play:Well, maybe you havenât seen this play but youâve seen plays similar from multiple teams this season. Yes, Gruden is stealing plays and thatâs okay, because itâs football. Everyone steals from everyone. With that said itâs interesting enough to note Youth Joe Haeg Jersey , if youâve seen an interesting, successful play design thereâs a very real chance Jon Gruden is trying to figure out how to use it for the Raiders. This play would have been difficult for the Dolphins to defend, but had they stayed in their assigned gaps, they would have had a real shot to make a stop for a short gain. I wasnât in the room when Gruden drew this one up but I believe the receiver this ball was thrown to was the first option on this play. I believe that because all of the other routes are working to ensure he gets open. The back coming out on his route makes the outside linebacker on his side of the field position himself wide, to prevent the back from having an advantage in the flat. On the backside both receivers run five yard ins and are designed to pull the linebackers up. The tight end runs a post away from everyone. All of these routes are working together to create a throwing lane and an open receiver. Had the defense not reacted how they hoped, Carr would have worked through his reads and there were enough options available, he could have still created positive yards. This is a well designed play. Throwing lanes can be created many ways:Once again, Gruden tried to create a throwing lane by making linebackers step up instead of back into coverage with play action. The idea is the same, a receiver goes deep to stretch the deep defenders over the top and the linebackers look to stop the run and Jordy Nelson is open because of it. Jon Grudenâs offense isnât a bad one. There are a lot of well designed plays but there seems to be a disconnect. I chose a lot of really successful plays against a defense that is similar to the one the Colts run. I didnât pick a lot of mistakes because thatâs what the next few sections of this article are for. Quarterback: Derek Carr is on pace to throw 22 interceptions this year. Heâs never thrown more than 13 in any season in his five year career. The craziest part of that stat; heâs completing nearly 72% of his passes which is around 8% higher than his next best season. So whatâs wrong with Derek Carr? Thatâs a complicated answer. To start, his protection has been bad. Itâs tough for any quarterback to play well behind a porous line and Carr is no exception to that rule. The second part of âwhatâs wrong with Carrâ is at best, my opinion. It is my opinion that Jon Gruden is coaching Carr into the ground. Carr is completing more than 70%âthatâs insane. Thatâs also a sign that Gruden is dialing up a lot of quick, short throws. During his career Carr hasnât turned the ball over, why is he doing it now? In my opinion itâs because heâs struggling to understand what to do with what heâs seeing. If a quarterback understands how to read a defense and progress through his reads, traits Carr has previously shown, then he just needs to understand where to go with the ball given what heâs seeing. Derek Carr isnât sure where he needs to go with the ball given Grudenâs system. If you combine that with shaky line play and you get a lot of plays like this:And on occasion if everything works out just like Gruden planned it:Ultimately this isnât an issue thatâs going to get fixed before Sundayâs kick off. I donât believe this is Derek Carrâs fault and I think whatever team Carr is playing for next season is getting a good quarterback as long as his next coach is willing to work with Carr and develop a system for him. Hopefully whatever mid-30âs quarterback Gruden brings in next season has more luck. Running Back:We all know Marshawn Lynch, but he landed on injured reserve earlier in the week. In his place Doug Martin, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington will look to fill in. Doug Martin looks to be the starter and at times has looked like the Doug Martin of old:As of right now, the Raiders donât have any backs on the roster averaging more than 3.7 yards per carry. Losing Lynch hurts this backfield as no one is sure what the Raiders have in Martin. Before off field issues creeped in on his career, Martin looked like a long-term option for the Bucs. Instead heâs trying to resurrect a promising career and Iâm not sure any team needs to be worried about the Raiders rushing attack. Pass Catchers: I would talk a lot about Amari Cooper but he plays for the Cowboys. Tight End, Jared Cook is leading the team with 32 receptions for 400 yards. Normally I talk about running backs above, but Jalen Richard is second on the team with 31 catches, he may line up in the backfield but heâs a major pass catching option for the Raiders. Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant and Seth Roberts will all see increased time with Cooper elsewhere. Nelson has been their most consistent downfield option which is odd considering heâs 33 years old. Bryant is a deep threat but with only 14 catches and no touchdowns Matt Eberflus isnât losing any sleep. Offensive Line: The starters from left to right: Kolton Miller, Jon Feliciano, Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Brandon Parker. Normally I spend a lot of time breaking down each of the five starters, instead I just want to talk about Miller and Parker. I know Iâm not some sort of football savant. I know I donât know all there is to know about the game or player evaluation. During the events that lead up to the draft I donât have access to player interviews with the teams, I donât know what guys are like mentally or emotionally. Thereâs just a lot I donât know. With that said, I believed that Kolton Miller was at best a second round pick that would need a lot of time to develop and I believed that Parker was a good athlete who really needed to learn to play the game at an NFL level. I believed he was a day three pick. Instead the Raiders took Miller 15th overall and they selected Parker with the first pick in the 3rd round.The Colts are starting two rookies on their offensive line. Think about how good the Colts line has looked protecting Andrew Luck, then watch the video below and take a minute to say a few nice things out loud about Chris Ballard and his ability to evaluate offensive line play. Kemoko Turay could have a big day and I canât wait. What to Expect from the Colts Defense: I believe we can expect more of the same. If anything weâre going to see more stunting to try to confuse and defeat what is a bad offensive line. I believe weâre going to see some schemed open receivers and as long as the Colts defensive backs keep the play in front of them and make solid tackles theyâre going to be able to look good against this overly complex, unexecutable offense.
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