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| Cowboys Poll: How many games must Jason Garrett win to keep his job |
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| 142 Beiträge - Gelegenheitsposter
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Things have not been going the Cowboysâ way this year http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-geoff...aim-jer sey , and thatâs not just a knee-jerk reaction to the last games.No, things have been out of kilter for one reason or another since Week 1. In fact, things have been out of kilter since the Atlanta game in Week 10 last year. How much out of kilter? Just look at these stats over the last 13 games:Points scored: 211 (NFL rank: 31st)Pass attempts: 376 (30th)Passing Yards per Attempt: 5.91 (29th)Offensive Passer Rating: 73.9 (27th)And if things remain the same as theyâve been for those 13 games, the team will be lucky to finish this year with an 8-8 record. The Pythagorean Formula (for more details, go here) was developed to measure overall team strength on the hypothesis that a teamâs true strength could be measured more accurately by looking at points scored and points allowed, rather than by looking at wins and losses. The interesting thing about the formula, at least for our purposes today, is you can calculate a projected season win total after every single game. Which is exactly what I did with the cumulative points differentials after each game: Obviously, the results here get more robust with every additional data point. After some wild swings in the first two game, the win projection has settled in at around six to seven wins since. And this far into the season, the data is robust enough to suggest that the Cowboys are not suddenly going to go on a six-game win streak.Another method to calculate projected wins is via passer rating differential (PRD). We know that PRD is one of the stats most closely linked to winning in the NFL. And PRD can be plugged into a very simple formula to predict win totals in the NFL. The PRD formula (Projected Wins = PRD*0.16+8) has shown a fairly close correlation with the Cowboysâ actual wins over the last decade or so, but has been oddly off the last few years: Overall, the PRD formula generates a mean average error of 1.9 games over the last four seasons, which isnât great Youth Terrance Williams Jersey , and is off significantly more in the last two years. This suggests that unlike previous years, the performance in the passing game for the Cowboys is not as big a determinant in their W/L loss as in the previous year.Coincidentally, with the arrival of Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas and the departure of Tony Romo in 2016, the Cowboys became a much more run-oriented team, so I figured that I had to find a way to account for the running game in the PRD formula. So I played around withe the data a bit came up with a modified PRD Formula that includes a teamâs rushing yards differential (RYD) as follows: Projected Wins = (PRD + RYD/50) * 0.16 + 8.In statistics, the relationship between two variables is called a correlation, and the strength of that correlation is measured by the âcorrelation coefficientâ. This coefficient (r虏) is expressed as a number between 1 and -1. The closer the r虏 number is to 1 or -1, the stronger the relationship between the two variables. The closer it is to zero, the weaker the relationship. I ran the original PRD formula against the 2017 regular season results for all 32 teams, and r虏 between Passer Rating Differential (PRD) and wins in 2017 was 0.62. Not bad, but not great either. Rushing yards differential for 2017 was a decidedly unimpressive 0.17, which is one reason why so many stat heads poo-poo the running game and suggest teams need to pass more. But after a little tinkering, something interesting happened. The modified PRD, which now includes rushing yards differential Youth Zack Martin Jersey , came back with an r虏 of 0.77 which is one of the strongest correlations youâll find outside of points differential. Hereâs a graph that illustrates the correlation between the modified PRD formula and wins for all 32 NFL teams in 2017:In terms of Mean Average Error, the original PRD Formula was off by 1.6 games on average in 2017, the modified PRD reduced that 1.3 games. And once applied to the last few Cowboys season, the modified PRD also delivered much better results: With the modified PRD, the mean average error for the Cowboys improved from 1.9 to a very impressive 0.9 wins. So what does the modified PRD project as the final record for the 2-3 Cowboys? With a PRD after five games of -22.5 and a RYD of +200, the formula projects 5.5 wins for the Cowboys this year.So the Pythagorean Formula has the 2018 Cowboys at 6.6 wins, the modified PRD sees them at 5.5 wins (both projections already factor in the Cowboysâ two wins). The modified PRD tells basically the same story as the Pythagorean formula, even if the projected win totals are a little lower. Want more projection? Fivethirtyeight.com has the Cowboys at 7.5 wins. Football Outsiders project the Cowboys for 7.4 wins.Looks like the 2018 Cowboys are likely headed to a six- or seven-win season, with eight wins as a clear ceiling. Which brings us to the titular question of this post. How many games must Jason Garrett win to keep his job?Many fans would like to fire Garrett regardless of his record this year, but thatâs not the way the Cowboys operate, as Tom Ryle pointed out the end of last season: Jason Garrett is in his ninth season as a head coach with the Cowboys, and has had plenty of time to mold the team to his wishes. Yet all he has to show for it is one playoff win, a 65-59 career record, and another season that that looks to be his fifth non-winning season. Of course http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-jeff-...ath-jer sey , none of this would have been possible without the ineptness of the father-son duo playing GM. Yet those two will be the final arbiters of Garrettâs fate, and as Tom points out, they might wimp out at firing Garret just as Garrett wimped out on the 4th-and-1 in Houston.No such wimping in Vegas, where Garrett is now listed as the mostly likely head coach to be fired first.And Jerry Jones wasnât too happy about his coach on Sunday either. RJ Ochoa pointed out that Jones publicly contradicting Garrettâs decision to punt doesnât bode well for the coach. So how many wins will it take for Jerry Jones to hang on to Garrett for yet another season?Give your answer in the attached poll or in the comments section below.Week 6 Power Rankings: The world reacts to Dallas punting on fourth down in overtime Tuesdays during the season mean a lot of things, for example yesterday was Monday.Something else Tuesdays bring besides the second day of the work week is power rankings. Outlets from all across the world wide web rank NFL teams in various but often similar orders. You can see how the Cowboys fared last week right here if youâd like.How did the world rank the Cowboys this week? Where do they think we fall? A loss on primetime in overtime after a much-debated punt decision surely isnât going to help. Here we go.SB Nation: 28th, previously 24thOnly the Giants, Bills, Raiders, and Cardinals are worse than the Cowboys according to our friends at SB Nation, and right now is that super unfair to say?The offense in Dallas is bad like almost no other. Bottom of the barrel is harsh, but many would say reality.NFL.com: 23rd, previously 22nd They think Dallas should have gone for it on fourth down, they think it quite emphatically.ESPN: 25th, previously 21stNot only is the worldwide leader down on who the Cowboys currently are http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-antho...own-jer sey , but theyâre not optimistic about things in the future for Dallas either.Sports Illustrated: 20th, previously 19thSI offers a bit more information in their rankings and one of the more interesting details is what the highest-place vote each team got was. Somebody in their voting pool actually voted the Cowboys as the 16th-best team in the NFL at the moment. Seriously.This ranking is without question the most generous of them all, but maybe Sports Illustrated sees something that nobody else does. Maybe? USA Today: 26th, previously 22ndThere are plenty of punt-related comments, as you likely imagined.Bleacher Report: 24th, previously 22ndItâs well-documented how bad the Cowboys offense is, itâs also quite apparent what their entire game plan is as well.This is a week to week league, and if the Cowboys come out and beat the Jaguars this Sunday things might change a bit in Week 7âs power rankings; however, thereâs a whole lot of if for that to happen.When a moment like the Cowboys choosing to punt happens itâs what people pounce on and latch on to. Itâs arguably the most-questioned decision across the National Football League this season.Please be kinder to us, Week 6.
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